113
FXUS66 KMTR 161133
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
433 AM PDT Tue Jul 16 2024

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 325 AM PDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Quiet weather with pleasant seasonal temperatures continues today
with a gradual but steady warm up beginning tomorrow that extends
into the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 325 AM PDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Not much change in the short term forecast, however slower
progression overnight of marine stratus over coastal locations and
nearby interior valleys does add uncertainty to todays forecasted
high temperatures, a trend that will need to be watched by the
day shift. Upper level shortwave ridging tomorrow will result in
warmer temperatures (approx 3-5 degree increase) away from the
marine layer influence under mostly sunny skies.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 325 AM PDT Tue Jul 16 2024

The gradual but steady increase in temperatures for Thursday and
beyond is the result of a shift and expansion west of the high
pressure system responsible for the recent heat wave, back over
our area for the end of this week into the weekend. Both ensemble
and deterministic extended guidance indicate the warming trend as
the dome of high pressure works back in our direction, with good
consensus that widespread extreme heat is unlikely in our area.
However, the typically warm spots, like elevated inland areas will
once again see triple digit heat by the end of the work week and
beyond.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 427 AM PDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Currently seeing a mixed bag of VFR-MVFR at the terminals as stratus
is very slowly starting to move and expand inland. There still
remains moderate-to-high confidence that all terminals will develop
MVFR ceilings this morning. Widespread VFR is expected to prevail by
early this afternoon. Winds will remain onshore through the TAF
period.

Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR with westerly flow. Stratus will
begin impacting the terminal shortly as it is starting to expand
north from the San Mateo Bridge Approach and east through the San
Bruno Gap. The terminal is expected to improve to VFR by late-
morning with another MVFR ceiling slated to impact the terminal
overnight. Winds will prevail out of the west through the TAF
period.

SFO Bridge Approach...Low clouds are already impacting the San
Mateo Bridge Approach with clearing expected to be similar to the
terminal between 17Z and 18Z.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently VFR with easterly flow at MRY and
VFR and calm at SNS. Winds will prevail out of the west/northwest
through the TAF period. Low-end MVFR to IFR ceilings are expected to
impact the terminals this morning with VFR prevailing by this
afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 427 AM PDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Light southerly breezes will transition to gentle northwesterly
breezes by this afternoon. The pressure gradient will begin
tightening tomorrow, allowing for northwesterly breezes to
strengthen and widespread strong gusts to be expected across the
waters. Significant wave heights will continue to slowly build
through the week with 10-12 feet to be expected in the outer
waters Thursday through the end of the forecast period.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...Sarment
MARINE...Sarment

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