Can SMU start their first season as a Power 4 program off with a bang?

Northwestern plays at a temporary field when it opens vs. Miami of Ohio. ...

Here are the early bets I made after the NFL schedule release ...

Guess one of us experts should make a play. Red-hot Zack Cimini did make a couple in the daily premium newsletter. Sign up if haven't as it's only going to get better once football starts. Not going big and doubt that I tune in much -- 100 percent not watching the national anthem (unaware who Cody Johnson is) after last night's Carl Lewis/Rosanne Barr mashup by someone else never heard of -- as I plan to catch up on House of the Dragon, but pitching has dominated the ASG with the Under hitting in 14 of the past 17. The total has stayed below this 7.5 number 11 times in the last 15 -- even a couple of years ago in Denver.

The Giants are one of those clubs I try to avoid backing. Not really sure why just has been that way a few years. Can't ever seem to figure them out. However, we'll do a little here behind Blake Snell as he looked almost like his 2023 Cy self last time out in his return from the IL after a disastrous start to the season. Still would have likely passed but the Twins are down arguably their two best hitters in Carlos Correa and Jose Miranda. Minnesota starting pitcher Chris Paddack has an ERA near 8.00 on the road.

Fanduel is giving us -104 for a 6th strikeout. I would not be surprised to see Logan Gilbert "empty the tank" in his final start before the break. He won't pitch in the All Star Game and Seattle needs a win to avoid losing the series, plus it would mean they lock up 1st place in the AL West for the 1st half! He has an impressive 16% swinging strike rate since June 1st and he's routinely been over this number in that time. The Angels present a middling matchup for strikeouts but the slider is a pitch they have struggled with. Gilbert uses a heavy fastball/slider pitch mix, with a 34% whiff rate on the slider, so he should lean on that here.

Only like this with the hook. The weather doesn't seem all that conducive to hitting today in Detroit and this might get rained on -- so if it's shortened, our total play voids regardless. I do think playing Unders is overall smart today right before the break because managers can obviously use their entire bullpen if need be with all the days off. That said, both clubs are using openers.

Miles Mikoles has an ERA of 6.18 at home, with opponents batting .280. In day games, his ERA is 5.01 with an average against of .272. His three primary pitches (Four-Seam fastball, Sinker, and Slider) are ineffective against Seiya Suzuki. Miles throws those three pitches 63% of the time. The Cubs right-fielder is slugging .548 against four-seamers, .464 against sinkers, and .500 against sliders. Overall, Suzuki has a hard-hit rate of 49.5% and an average exit velocity of 92.4 mph, both of which rank in the 92nd percentile. The temperatures are in the low 90s with an air density reading of 55, which suggests the ball will travel 14% further in today's game.

Zac Gallen is a wizard at home so I'm surprised at this number or I would have played Snakes -1 at -104. Feel the ML should be around -170 and it is starting to tick up. Counterpart Yusei Kikuchi has 6.38 ERA and has given up eight homers over his last five starts. Could be his last outing as a Blue Jay with the lefty expected to be traded. Arizona ranks sixth in OPS vs. southpaws.

Sundays can be very difficult. Miles Mikolas owns a 6.18 home ERA and faces a Cubs team that’s 7-3 SU in their last 10 and have been hitting .314 with a .837 OPS over their last seven days. The last two games went over and the obvious play with Mikolas on the mound is the over, so we’ll take the contrarian route.

I will say that Sundays are weird overall but the one right before the All-Star break can truly be wacky. We all know how it is pre-vacation. Lose focus, etc. It's the season debut of Colorado's German Marquez and he wasn't very good in his minor-league rehab with a 6.23 ERA over 17.1 innings. Counterpart Jose Quintana has now allowed a run in his past two (granted, both against the Nationals). Starting pitching almost matters the least today because bullpens can be used big time with all the off days coming. I would play -1 if available. but not liking -1.5.

The Diamondbacks have won four straight and 10 of 14. Blue Jays lefty Yusei Kikuchi shined last time out against the Giants, but this is a much tougher matchup. Arizona ranks sixth in OPS against lefties (.770). Corbin Carroll broke out Saturday, and Eugenio Suarez has crushed four homers in his past seven games. Zac Gallen is coming off a poor outing but still owns a 2.36 home ERA.

Boston Red Sox starter Brayan Bello has had his struggles since June. In five of his last seven starts he has given up four or more runs. Still, Bello ranks tenth in wins this season, including wins in three of his last four starts. He is also coming off an eleven strikeout performance. Take the Red Sox at home in the final game before All Star break over the Kansas City Royals.

Blake Snell looked excellent in his return from IL, giving up just one hit in five innings. But I need to see more to be convinced he's past his struggles from the rest of the year when he allowed at least three earned runs in all six starts. He's up against a Twins offense that owns an excellent 124 OPS+ against lefties and a 134 OPS+ over the last four weeks. Only five of 24 lefty starters have held the Twins under two earned runs all year, and I don't think Snell has done enough to expect him to join that group today.

Blake Snell finally had a competent outing last time out after another long injury absence, but threw just 73 pitches and still walked 3 guys in 5 IP. It's been a lost season for him, and MIN is 16-9 vs LH starters. Twins are hot, 20-10 in last 30 and 13-7 in last 20. Chris Paddack has stabilized, I guess, since a horrid start to season. Despite his woes MIN 5-2 in his last 7 starts, all wins by 2+ runs. They've scored at least 5 runs in all those starts and 48 total runs in those 7 outings. Twins enter this rubber game having won 4 straight road series (9-5 in that span).