Estrich Goldin LLP’s Post

This is far too long, but very insightful.  Translation, Trump is surging and Biden is the only person who can beat him . . . because the Democrat Party has lost its way. ------------------- "It is not news that the Democrats have been losing white working-class voters ever since the emergence of the Reagan Democrats. But today, the party is bleeding working-class voters of all varieties. As John B. Judis and Ruy Teixeira point out in their forthcoming book, “Where Have All the Democrats Gone?” Democrats have been losing ground among Hispanics for the last few years. In 2012, Barack Obama carried nonwhite voters without a college degree by a 67-point margin. In 2020, Biden carried this group with a 48-point margin. Today, the Democratic ticket leads among this group by a paltry 16 points. But Democrats are losing something arguably more important than a reliable base of supporters. The party is in danger of letting go of an ethos, a heritage, a tradition. The working-class heart and soul the Democrats cultivated through the Roosevelt, Truman and Kennedy years rooted Democratic progressivism in a set of values that emphasized hard work, neighborhood, faith, family and flag. Being connected to Americans’ everyday experiences kept the party pinioned to the mainstream. As the party became dominated by the more educated activist and media sectors, it lost touch with some of what can be called its psychological and emotional power sources. It grew prone to taking flights of fancy in policy and rhetoric, be it Medicare for All or “defund the police,” going to places where middle-of-the-road voters would not follow. It became more vulnerable to the insular outlooks of its most privileged and educated members. This is what happened in 2020. There were moments in that campaign when it looked as if Bernie Sanders was going to run away with the race, sending the party into uncharted ideological waters. Most of the other candidates sprinted leftward. In a June 2019 debate, nine of 10 Democratic presidential candidates raised their hands when asked if they supported decriminalizing border crossings. Elizabeth Warren and Kirsten Gillibrand were even further left than their colleagues. The year prior, both of them called for dismantling Immigration and Customs Enforcement. College-educated voters are less worried about illegal immigration than high school-educated voters and that influence showed." https://lnkd.in/gK8Z2bBD

Joined #cgtn to discuss Washington's narrowly averted government shutdown. Why are Democrats and Republicans ignoring high costs and again risking shutdowns? The American system was designed to be inefficient, to ensure government is divided, with the separation of powers at the federal level, and by distinguishing between federal and state power and responsibility. The founders also foresaw competition between political parties. These inefficiencies were desired insomuch as they feared a powerful government taking control of their lives and fortunes.   Unfortunately, the founders probably did not anticipate the sort of crippling political polarization we see in the US today, where both major parties act as complicit adversaries and fight over shutdowns that ultimately harm national well-being. The founders also did not anticipate how government failures like these would pose risks worldwide.   Threats of shutdowns have become standard political theater in Washington, but these always intensify as the country moves further into a presidential campaign season, with both parties posturing for votes but above all, at this stage, when they are seeking support from the base for nomination contests.   Despite passing and signing a last minute short-term funding bill that narrowly averted a shutdown only hours ago, it’s a stop-gap measure that will expire on November 17, a month a half from now, possibly provoking another round of political drama. What does the debate over next year's budget tell us about the key issues driving the 2024 elections?   One is support for Ukraine. Popular support for #ukraine is softening and is softest among Republicans. The conflict has stalemated and Republicans remain concerned it’s a money trap that serves Biden’s political interests, including allegations directed at Biden’s family over Ukraine-related corruption...   Another is House Speaker Kevin McCarthy's future: he's alienated both Trump supporters and Republican hardliners for allowing the vote without significant budget cuts. Recall McCarthy lost 14 elections before winning the speakership, finally making concessions to hardliners to win the 15th ballot. They might target him now and produce another leadership crisis in the House.   Fundamentally, they are fighting over entitlement programs, including #socialsecurity, #medicare and #medicaid, and how the US should balance spending between #infrastructure, national industrial policies, and #climatechange. How can the US afford this kind of gamesmanship? How does it affect public trust? Trust in US government, including the presidency, Congress and Supreme Court, are at or near historic lows and have been since last summer. It can go lower.   By some estimates the US can afford anything it wants as long as the dollar is hegemonic... While breaking points will arrive sooner or later, it’s clear both parties are unwilling to change presently...

FINGER POINTING ISN'T ENOUGH, UNCLE JOE. THIS FROM THIS MORNING'S NEW YORK TIMES: "An about-face President Biden has come to recognize that the surge of undocumented immigration during his presidency is a threat to his re-election. He knows that most voters are unhappy about the increase. So are mayors and governors who have been left to deal with an expensive and often chaotic situation — such as in Denver, the subject of a recent Times story. Biden and his advisers have already settled on one strategy to reduce his political vulnerability. They plan to remind voters that congressional Republicans this month blocked a bipartisan bill that would have strengthened border security. Even though many Republicans favored the bill’s policies, they defeated it at Donald Trump’s behest, largely to avoid solving a problem that has hurt Biden politically." What happened on our southern border last year was absolutely inexcusable. It appears to have been the result of unconscionable negligence on the part of the DHS in combination with Biden and friends pandering to a segment of the Democratic left. It's a little late now for mere rhetoric to carry the day. In the next 8 months Biden and his DHS had better show the voters some substantive initiatives. Meanwhile, we ALL need to recognize that we are witnessing a mass human migration from the southern to the northern hemisphere, driven in part by climate change, that poses an existential threat to Western democracies. This is true in both North America and Europe. Unless and until we can conceive and embrace creative, sweeping solutions, we cannot begin to effectively meet this challenge. This means, as ever in human history, we cede the battlefield to the fascists and the dictators.

Here's my prediction ... Most Americans think "the Big Guy" (Joe Biden) engaged in influence peddling and taking bribes from foreign governments and a great deal of current evidence certainly seems to point in that direction. In my opinion, those actions would constitute treason, which is defined as the crime of betraying one's country. However, nothing will likely come of it. First, the DOJ and FBI have shown no proclivity toward seriously investigating this issue. In fact, evidence seems to indicate that they have have been actively running interference for the Bidens ... particularly Hunter's federal tax evasion and federal firearm violations ... for either of which the average person certainly would have received serious prison time. But, more importantly, nothing will happen to Joe for the simple reason that Kamala Harris would then take over for the deposed President. So, rather than having a doddering, mentally challenged puppet in the White House, we would end up with a cackling, incompetent who speaks in word salads and has proven by her time in office (and her cratering polls) that she is completely incapable of holding any serious office or accomplishing anything of substance. I know ... it's hard to imagine anyone being worse than Biden ... but Harris accomplishes just that. And for that reason alone, the Big Guy will get a pass ... at the expense of the country. https://lnkd.in/gUJF7bsU

In terms of your civic duty and involvement in democracy and our responsibility to participate and vote, today do you: a) Vote for the lesser of two evils? b) Vote for a qualified leader of good character that has no shot? c) No longer participate in such a broken, corrupt, and dysfunctional system? I have finally arrived firmly at c) as I have no interest in voting for evil, greater or lesser, nor doing something silly and pointless as the case is with b)...~r As the nation’s capital seemed to be barreling toward another debilitating federal government shutdown this weekend, America, well, did not exactly seem to be on the edge of its collective seat. Judging by Google search trends, at least, Americans in the days leading up to the shutdown-that-wasn’t were more curious about who shot Tupac Shakur, who might win “The Golden Bachelor” and who would claim the giant Powerball jackpot. Even National Coffee Day 2023 generated more searches at one point than the possible government shutdown. Those are probably not signs of public confidence that the nation’s leaders would somehow avoid plummeting off the cliff at the last minute, even though, surprisingly, they did. Instead, they may indicate that America at this point assumes that Washington actually will go over the cliff, because that is what Washington does these days. After all, the 11th-hour congressional deal that kept the government open lasts only until mid-November. America, it seems, has come to expect crisis. In an era of disruption and polarization and insurrection, with a former president facing 91 felony counts in four criminal indictments and a sitting president facing an impeachment inquiry and a House speaker facing a possible move to oust him, the country has grown accustomed to chaos in the capital. Dysfunction is the new normal. https://lnkd.in/gmGsuWgb

BIDEN'S ACHILLES HEEL. AND ONE OF THE BIGGEST THREATS TO OUR DEMOCRACY TODAY. This from this morning's New York Times: "Change may be coming President Biden and his aides describe this year’s election as crucial — existential, even — because of Donald Trump’s hostility to democracy. Many outside experts agree. "Yet given the election’s importance, the Biden administration has been notably slow to address one of his biggest political vulnerabilities: immigration. Polls show that immigration is a top concern of voters, often trailing only the economy. Most voters are unhappy with Biden’s handling of the issue and say they trust Trump more on it. Even Democratic mayors and governors have criticized Biden for the surge of migration on his watch." It would be a shame if the choice came down to unrestrained illegal immigration on one hand, or Donito Trumpolini on the other. Both are existential threats to our democracy. The Times story goes on the say that Biden is finally taking the threat ---to America and to his reelection---seriously. He's a savvy politico. Let's hope the report is accurate.