Before I get to my breakdowns for Friday’s first-round games, I would like to remind my mostly informed audience of one important fact: These picks are against the spread. Please keep that in mind before you address them in the comments section — or as I like to call it, the kindness section.
All lines are via Bet MGM.
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Enjoy the games!
2023 NCAA Tournament: 10-10
2022-23 regular season: 45-30
No. 7 Michigan State (-1 1/2) vs. No. 10 USC, 12:15 p.m., CBS. I must say, I’m surprised to see the spread is this small. Besides being led by Tom Izzo, one of the greatest postseason coaches in the history of the game, the Spartans also played quality basketball down the stretch, winning five of their last eight games. They still play quality defense (40th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency, per KenPom), but this is a good offensive team as well. Michigan State ranks fourth in the country in 3-point shooting (39.5) and led the Big Ten in 3-point defense (30.7). That’s a good matchup against a USC squad that relies heavily on two perimeter players, 6-3 senior point guard Boogie Ellis and 6-8 senior forward Drew Peterson. The Trojans are also one of the worst defensive rebounding teams in the country (328th nationally in percentage), which is a major problem against a program that has made crashing the boards a perennial staple. The pick: Michigan State
No. 3 Xavier (-11 1/2) vs. No. 14 Kennesaw State, 12:40 p.m., truTV. Much has been made about the loss of Zach Freemantle from Xavier’s lineup (the 6-9 senior forward suffered a season-ending foot injury in late January). That might have been a blow to the Musketeers’ offense, but their defense improved when Sean Miller replaced Freemantle in the starting lineup with his ball-hawking Glue Guy, Jerome Hunter. The Musketeers have one of the nation’s premier backcourts in Souley Boum and Colby Jones, so I like this matchup against a Kennesaw State team that ranks 337th nationally in height, per KenPom. Amir Abdur-Rahim has done an incredible job revitalizing Kennesaw State’s program, leading his Owls to a share of the Atlantic Sun regular-season championship and a win over Liberty in the conference tourney final. They also won seven one-possession games this season. I’m not sure if that means they’re not quite as good as their record, or if they’re incredibly resilient. Probably both. Either way, Xavier should win this one going away. The pick: Xavier
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No. 3 Baylor (-10 1/2) vs. No. 14 UC Santa Barbara, 1:30 p.m., TNT. It’s not fair to keep comparing this Baylor squad with recent versions, but let’s do it anyway. The Bears have a dynamic scoring perimeter trio in 6-4 freshman Keyonte George, 6-3 senior Adam Flagler and 6-1 junior L.J. Cryer, but those guys are not nearly the same defensive demons as the trio that powered Baylor to the 2021 title. The Bears’ No. 104 ranking in adjusted defensive efficiency on KenPom is their lowest since 2009, and the addition of 6-8 senior forward Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua to the lineup in early February has not provided the spark that I anticipated. Having lost four of its last six games, Baylor now has to take on a Gauchos squad that is playing in its second NCAA Tournament in three years, won a school-record 27 games and is 18-0 when scoring 70 or more points. UCSB ranks seventh in the country in field goal percentage (49.3) and has a big-time bucket-getter in 6-5 sophomore guard Ajay Mitchell, the Big West Conference Player of the Year (16.4 points, 5.1 assists per game). I’ve got UCSB going to the Sweet 16 on my bracket, but even if they can’t pull off this upset, I like the Gauchos’ chances to keep things close. The pick: UCSB
No. 5 Saint Mary’s (-4 1/2) vs. No. 12 VCU, 2 p.m., TBS. Saint Mary’s was the team that the metrics loved all season. The Gaels didn’t enter the AP Top 25 until late January and never climbed higher than No. 15 (they’re currently 19th), yet they finished the regular season ranked 11th in the NET and on KenPom. Take from that what you will, but having watched the Gaels get trounced by Gonzaga, 77-51, in the WCC tournament final, I don’t see this as a team that is poised to make a deep run in the NCAA Tournament. VCU, on the other hand, looked very determined in winning its last nine games. The Rams rank 11th in the country in steals percentage, and they have an elite floor general in 6-1 junior Ace Baldwin, who was named the Atlantic 10’s player of the year and defensive player of the year. Baldwin missed four games in November because of a wrist injury, and the Rams lost two of them. With a healthy Baldwin, VCU is better than a No. 12 seed. The pick: VCU
No. 2 Marquette (-10 1/2) vs. No. 15 Vermont, 2:45 p.m., CBS. Tyler Kolek is ready for his close-up. The 6-3 junior was not only one of the best point guards in America, but also one of the most improved. He ranked second in the country in assists per game (7.7), raised his 3-point percentage by 10 points over last season, and over his last seven games averaged 19.3 points (on 44.0 percent 3-point shooting), 7.9 assists (to just 2.7 turnovers) and 2.3 steals per game while making 81.1 percent of his free throws. No wonder Kolek was voted Big East Player of the Year, and Marquette won the league’s regular season and tournament title after being picked to finish ninth in the preseason. The Golden Eagles are not the most physical team in the tournament, but Vermont is not equipped to expose that. The Catamounts rank 278th in height on KenPom and 358th in offensive rebound percentage. The pick: Marquette
No. 6 Iowa State (-3 1/2) vs. No. 11 Pittsburgh, 3:10 p.m., truTV. The Panthers had to survive a late-season skid and two wide-open looks by Mississippi State in Tuesday night’s First Four game. But here they are. Pitt advanced despite playing without its starting center, Federiko Federiko, who missed the win over Mississippi State because of a knee injury. Now they’ll face one of the best defensive teams in the country in Iowa State, which ranks ninth on KenPom in efficiency and eighth in steals percentage. That will put a lot of pressure on Pitt point guard Nelly Cummings, who played all 40 minutes against the Bulldogs and did not have a turnover. The Cyclones aren’t pretty to watch on offense sometimes (especially since their best 3-point shooter, Caleb Grill, was dismissed from the program in late February), but they are comfortable in a low-scoring grinder of a game. As they demonstrated last year in making the Sweet 16 as a No. 11 seed, that’s a good formula to take into March. The pick: Iowa State
No. 6 Creighton (-5 1/2) vs. No. 11 NC State, 4 p.m., TNT. Kevin Keatts did a great job getting the Wolfpack to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2018, but they limped their way into March Madness by losing three of their last four games, including two to Clemson by a combined 51 points. The Wolfpack have a potent scoring guard in 6-4 sophomore guard Terquavion Smith, who averages 17.5 points and 4.2 assists per game, but the Bluejays have plenty of offensive firepower of their own, which is why they are ranked 27th on KenPom in adjusted offensive efficiency. They’re also 16th in defensive efficiency, largely because they have one of the nation’s top rim protectors in 7-1 junior center Ryan Kalkbrenner, who also leads them in scoring at 15.4 points per game. Kalkbrenner’s presence should help neutralize NC State’s 6-9, 260-pound center, D.J. Burns. The pick: Creighton
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No. 4 UConn (-9) vs. No. 13 Iona, 4:30 p.m., TBS. No team is coming into the NCAA Tournament hotter than Iona. The Gaels have won 14 straight, and only one of those wins came by fewer than six points. Yes, Rick Pitino is the coach, but Iona also has the type of personnel that can execute Pitino’s aggressive, pressing, trapping defense. And unlike a lot of mid-majors, Iona has high-major size up front with 6-9 junior Nelly Junior Joseph and 7-0 senior center Osborn Shema, which is why this team ranks fourth in the country in blocks at 5.6 per game. In that respect, UConn is a tough matchup, because the Huskies boast the nation’s most formidable center tandem in 6-9 junior Adama Sanogo and 7-2 freshman Donovan Clingan. UConn’s primary weakness this season has been at the point guard spot, but 6-5 senior guard Tristen Newton, a transfer from East Carolina, has grown into the role over the last six weeks. In the end, I think UConn has just enough to get out of this one with a win, but either way it’s coming down to the wire. The pick: Iona
No. 1 Purdue (-22 1/2) vs. No. 16 FDU, 6:50 p.m., TNT. The basketball gods gave us a doozy in this one. FDU is the smallest team in the country. No player in its nine-man rotation is taller than 6-6. One of those guys is going to be assigned the very tall task of guarding Zach Edey, Purdue’s 7-4 national player of the year. On the other hand, it will be entertaining watching Edey trying to chase all those little guards away from the basket. The Knights like to force turnovers and fire up 3s, but that’s not a winning formula against a disciplined Boilermakers squad. Matt Painter has done a good job rejiggering his lineup since Purdue dropped four out of six in February, favoring scorers and ballhandlers over non-shooting defenders. That has given the squad a much better look for the postseason. The pick: Purdue
No. 6 Kentucky (-4 1/2) vs. No. 11 Providence, 7:10 p.m., CBS. I picked Providence to win this game in my bracket, but I have to wonder if all the talk about Ed Cooley possibly going to Georgetown has been a distraction. That’s an unwelcome burden for a team that was already sputtering with four losses in its last five games. I also wonder how the Friars’ leading scorer, 6-6 sophomore forward Bryce Hopkins, who transferred from Kentucky, will handle the scrutiny of going up against his old teammates. The Wildcats have been banged up and lost twice to Vanderbilt in their last three games, but even with the shorter bench (or more likely, because of it) Kentucky has been a much better defensive team over the last month. I’ll stick with my Providence pick because the game is likely to be slow-paced and low scoring, but I can’t say I’m feeling confident about it. The pick: Providence
No. 5 Miami (-2 1/2) vs. No. 12 Drake, 7:25 p.m., TBS. The big question here is the status of Miami 6-7 sophomore forward Norchad Omier, who injured his ankle early in the Hurriances’ loss to Duke in the semifinals of the ACC tournament. Omier did some stretching and shooting on Wednesday, but he did not participate in Miami’s practice. It’s hard enough to beat a seasoned, quality team like Drake at full strength, but it will be a lot harder with Miami’s only serviceable big man dealing with a bad wheel. And make no mistake, Drake is a really good team. The Bulldogs finished a game behind Bradley in the Missouri Valley Conference standings, but they thumped the Braves by 26 points in the tourney final. Drake is one of the few teams ranked in the top 30 on KenPom in both experience and minutes continuity, which measures its roster carryover from last season. The one non-senior in the starting lineup is its best player and leading scorer, 6-7 sophomore Tucker DeVries, who averages 19.0 points on 38.7 percent 3-point shooting to go along with 5.6 rebounds. The pick: Drake
No. 3 Gonzaga (-15 1/2) vs. No. 14 Grand Canyon, 7:35 p.m., truTV. We don’t think of Gonzaga as a team that plays angry, but this squad has learned to utilize that edge. The Zags saw their 76-game home win streak snapped by Loyola Marymount on Jan 19, and then a month later they eviscerated the Lions by 43 points at their place. Gonzaga blew a late lead at Saint Mary’s on Feb. 4 and lost in overtime, and then beat the Gaels twice, including by 26 points in the WCC tourney final. The Bulldogs know they need to maintain that energy because this is not an athletic group. So I expect them to take care of business against a Grand Canyon squad that won the WAC tournament but went 10-7 in league play during the regular season. The pick: Gonzaga
No. 8 Memphis (-2 1/2) vs. No. 9 Florida Atlantic, 9:20 p.m., TNT. I’m a strong believer that winning is a habit, and no team has developed that habit better than Florida Atlantic. Houston and Charleston are the only teams that can match the Owls’ 31 wins. Dusty May plays nine guys 16 or more minutes per game, and all of them average between five and 13 points. Memphis, on the other hand, relies very heavily on two players, 5-11 guard Kendric Davis and 6-9 forward DeAndre Williams, who combine to average 39.9 points per game. This is by far the oldest team that Penny Hardaway has coached during his five seasons at his alma mater, but the Tigers still commit too many turnovers (207th nationally in percentage per KenPom), and they are not a big 3-point shooting team. Memphis probably has the higher ceiling between these two, but Florida Atlantic is more likely to reach it. The pick: Florida Atlantic
No. 3 Kansas State (-8 1/2) vs. No. 14 Montana State, 9:40 p.m., CBS. Kansas State has been one of the big surprises this season, and though the Wildcats have had some clunkers, when they’ve been good, they’ve been really good. They won road games at Texas and Baylor, and they beat Kansas at home in overtime. They have two All-Americans in 6-6 senior forward Keyontae Johnson and 5-8 senior point guard Markquis Nowell, and though they don’t have much depth, their lockdown defense (No. 19 nationally in efficiency) gives them a healthy margin for error. Montana State started off 3-5 against a nondescript nonconference schedule, but it went 15-3 in the Big Sky Conference and won the conference tourney after escaping Weber State in double overtime in the conference tourney. The pick: Kansas State
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No. 4 Indiana (-4 1/2) vs. No. 13 Kent State, 9:55 p.m., TBS. It’s pretty striking that the No. 4 seed is only favored by 4 1/2 points. Kent State coach Rob Senderoff was an assistant at Indiana under Kelvin Sampson who resigned in the midst of an NCAA investigation into improper phone calls to recruits. This is the best team Senderoff has coached during his 12 seasons at Kent State. They finished in second place in the MAC, just one game behind Toledo, and have an explosive offensive player in 6-1 senior guard Sincere Carry, who averaged 17.6 points, 4.9 assists and 3.7 rebounds. The Hoosiers have been looking increasingly worn down the last four weeks due to a lack of depth, but I think the start of the NCAA Tournament should give them renewed vigor. The Golden Flashes’ tallest starter is 6-8 senior forward Miryne Thomas, and he’s going to have a hard time defending Trayce Jackson-Davis without getting into foul trouble. The game will be competitive, but with the point spread this small, I’ll take the Hoosiers to cover with late free throws. The pick: Indiana
No. 6 TCU (-4 1/2) vs. No. 11 Arizona State, 10:05 p.m., truTV. TCU’s season has been riddled by injuries and various other personnel issues, so it’s only proper that the Horned Frogs entered the NCAA Tournament without their starting center, 6-11 sophomore Eddie Lampkin Jr., who left the team last week and has entered the transfer portal. More important for TCU is that its leading scorer, 6-2 junior guard Mike Miles Jr., looks to be reasonably healthy again. Miles has averaged 18.0 points on 50.0 3-point shooting over his last three games. Arizona State looked impressive, to say the least, against Nevada on Wednesday night, but the Sun Devils will be playing a much tougher defensive squad in this one. And unlike Nevada, TCU is more than capable of matching up with the Sun Devils’ size, speed and length. The pick: TCU
(Top photo of Michigan State’s Mady Sissoko: Quinn Harris / Getty Images)