Monday’s game between the United States men’s national team and Uruguay was expected to be about winning Group C in this Copa America. However, the shocking loss to Panama on Thursday has left the Americans likely needing to beat a quality opponent and still potentially needing some help from the other match in the group.
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Ahead of Monday’s Group C finales, Uruguay has six points, the USMNT and Panama have three points each and Bolivia has zero points. Technically, no team has clinched a spot in the quarterfinals and no team is eliminated. Practically, Uruguay’s plus-7 goal differential is likely not going to be caught by the US (plus-1) and Panama (minus-1). BetMGM isn’t even offering odds on Uruguay to advance from the group. The same on the opposite end for Bolivia, which has to overcome a minus-7 goal differential.
The U.S. enters the final match knowing the only way to guarantee a spot in the quarterfinals is to beat Uruguay by four goals or more, which isn’t realistic. Otherwise, the U.S. must at least match Panama’s result against Bolivia. If the U.S. beats Uruguay by a goal, Panama would have to beat Bolivia by at least three to make up the goal differential advantage the U.S. has entering Monday’s match. This is the same Panama team that was tied with both Guyana and Montserrat at halftime in World Cup qualifiers in early June before winning those matches by two goals each. Read more on the advancing scenarios here.
Believe it or not, the U.S. actually has a slight edge in the odds against Uruguay. It’s close to a toss up, but the U.S. winning is viewed as more likely than Uruguay winning. Not many American fans will be thinking that way after seeing the team lose to Panama on home soil, even though a first-half red card played a large role in that shocking loss, but Uruguay doesn’t need to win. A draw locks up first place in the group for Uruguay, and realistically Uruguay will likely win the group regardless of what happens in this match.
However, the odds are less friendly to the U.S. when it comes to advancing. Panama is -160 to beat Bolivia, which puts a lot of pressure on the U.S. to win. BetMGM has the odds of advancing at -155 for Panama and +110 for the USMNT.
All odds from BetMGM.
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United States vs. Uruguay
Kickoff time: 9 p.m. ET
Records: USMNT (1-0-1, 3 points), Uruguay (2-0-0, 6 points)
Venue: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Mo.
Advancing scenarios aside, this is a tough match for the Americans. For one, Uruguay looked better against both of the other Group C teams than the U.S. did. Uruguay beat Panama 3-1, although Uruguay led 1-0 for most of the match until scoring two late goals, and blew away Bolivia 5-0. Additionally, Uruguay has only lost twice in 15 matches since the World Cup with wins in World Cup qualifying against Argentina and Brazil in that span.
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Liverpool’s Darwin Núñez has scored in both games so far and will be a handful for the American defense. Uruguay’s eight goals so far in this tournament are the most of any team, including the eight teams that already played all three group matches.
The Americans will be without Timothy Weah after his red card against Panama. Goalkeeper Matt Turner’s status is unclear after suffering an injury that caused him to be subbed off last match.
The last time the U.S. and Uruguay met was a 1-1 draw just over two years ago. That match was also in Kansas City, but on the Kansas side. The Americans have two wins, four draws and one loss to Uruguay, although the one loss was the only other time the teams met in the Copa America, in 1993.
Regardless of whether the U.S. advances or not, this match comes with high stakes against a quality opponent and is about as close to a World Cup group match as this team will face until the 2026 World Cup itself. Get your popcorn and your hot takes ready.
More 2024 Copa America coverage
Marcelo Bielsa banned, won’t coach Uruguay vs USMNT at Copa America
Three ways the U.S. can maximize its opportunities against Uruguay without Tim Weah
USMNT’s Tim Weah suspended two games after Copa America red card
(Photo of Folarin Balogun: Todd Kirkland / Getty Images)
