On the Fourth of July, the world will again turn its attention to Coney Island as 14 men and 10 women compete in an annual tradition that has become synonymous with the American holiday: The Nathan’s Famous Hot Dog Eating Contest.
This year, the drama isn’t just about devouring the most dogs.
A major shake-up was announced last month on the men’s side of the competition, as Joey Chestnut, the 16-time champion and winner of the last eight contests, is out for this year’s event. Chestnut’s absence is due to another American tradition: a contractual disagreement.
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According to statements from Major League Eating (MLE) and Chestnut himself, the dispute boils down to MLE operating under a hot dog exclusivity provision with Nathan’s Famous for the past two decades. This year, Chestnut partnered with Impossible Foods, a rival company that sells plant-based hot dogs. Though Chestnut notes he does not have a contract with MLE or Nathan’s, the decision was made to disallow him from competing this year because of his agreement with Impossible Foods.
After so many years at the top of the food-eating chain, Chestnut has become a household name. Whether his absence hurts the event’s popularity is a yet to be seen, but one thing that has already been affected is the competition. With Chestnut out, the field is wide open on the men’s side, and there’s even a possibility that the women’s reigning champion could outpace (out-eat?) the men.
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Who are the main contenders?
During the past three years alone, Chestnut had been listed at odds of -3000, -3000 and -5000 to win the mustard belt, a feat he accomplished each of those years by 10 or more hot dogs and buns eaten. With his absence from the contest this year, a golden (mustard) opportunity now presents itself for one of the male competitors to claim their first-ever mustard belt.
There are two names atop the betting odds this year: Geoffrey Esper (-120) and James Webb (+200).
Esper is the current No. 2 eater on the MLE rankings. The 49-year-old holds an extensive list of eating records, including (prepare yourself) 281 buffalo chicken wings in 12 minutes, 95 street tamales in 10 minutes, 23.75 pounds of strawberry shortcake in eight minutes and 83 slices of pizza in 10 minutes.
Webb, on the other hand, is the No. 5 eater on the MLE rankings. At 35 years old, Webb has fewer notable achievements than Esper but has set six eating records this year alone. Those records include: 70 glazed donuts in eight minutes, 51 Texas sausages in 10 minutes, 250 donut holes in eight minutes, 338 pistachios in eight minutes, 224 chicken wings in 10 minutes and 13.5 pounds of chocolate fudge in eight minutes.
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Both boast YouTube channels full of some ridiculous but very impressive eating challenge feats. Esper’s includes a video of him eating 333 Chips Ahoy cookies and Webb recently posted a video of him downing the entire menu of a hoagie shop.
At Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest last year, Esper finished in second place with 49 hot dogs and buns (HDBs) eaten, while Webb finished in third place with 47 HDBs eaten.
On the women’s side, Miki Sudo finds herself a -1000 favorite to win her 10th pink belt. Sudo is the No. 3 eater on the MLE rankings and has won nine of the last 10 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating contests. The MLE rankings combine men and women; Sudo is only behind Chestnut and Esper.
Sudo holds the women’s record for hot dogs eaten in 10 minutes at 48.5 HDBs in the 2020 contest. Since defeating Sonya Thomas in the 2014 Nathan’s Contest, Sudo has seemingly been unbeatable on the Coney Island stage with one exception — the 2021 Nathan’s Contest, in which Sudo was absent while pregnant. Her partner is Nick Wehry, No. 4 in the MLE rankings.
How to watch and stream the 2024 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest
The women’s event will stream on ESPN3 and the ESPN app starting at 10:45 a.m. ET.
The men’s event starts at noon ET and airs on ESPN2 as well on the ESPN app.
How might the weather affect the competition?
If you recall, the 2023 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest was plagued with strange weather. The women’s contest was able to complete in humid but otherwise decent weather. One hour later, as the men’s contest was preparing to begin, a massive storm hit Coney Island. The men’s contest was initially called off due to weather, but after a two-hour delay, the eating resumed.
This decision proved catastrophic for anyone betting the over on total hot dog count, as the hot dogs and buns had already been cooked and began to tighten up and grow stale during the two-hour rain delay. The result was a victory for Chestnut at 62 HDBs eaten, a far cry from the 73.5 HDB line that sportsbooks had predicted for Chestnut prior to the contest.
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This year, the forecast suggests we are potentially in for similar conditions as last year — a humid 82 degrees with a 40 percent chance of rain and a 25 percent chance of thunderstorms beginning in the early afternoon. Any rain, or delay in time due to rain and weather considerations, will have a negative impact on the competitors.
Predictions
All odds from BetMGM.
To win: Miki Sudo (-1600)
I recognize that -1600 is a large amount of juice to lay on one wager, but with the absence of Chestnut from the men’s contest this year, I believe Sudo will be inspired to do something that has never been done before: Be a female eater who consumes more hot dogs and buns than all the male eaters. This will be no small task, as Esper, Webb and even her husband, Wehry, are all formidable competitors and great eaters in their own right. But aside from the men, who will compete one hour after Sudo is finished, Sudo is without a doubt the greatest female eater of all time. I see no issues with her claiming her 10th pink belt at this year’s contest.
To win: Geoffrey Esper (-120)
Unless something unusual occurs this year, most are expecting a two-dog race between Esper and Webb to claim the 2024 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest cash prize and coveted mustard belt. I tend to agree, and I really like Esper as the favorite to get the job done.
Esper finished second to Chestnut each of the last two years, eating 49 and 47.5 hot dogs and buns, respectively. This year, especially with Chestnut being absent, I expect Esper to set a personal best and cross the 50 hot dogs and bun threshold en route to his first career mustard belt and the biggest win of his career. Esper has been around the MLE circuit for years now, and as the world No. 2, I expect he will solidify his position as the greatest male eater on Earth not named Joey Chestnut.
Geoffrey Esper Over 49.5 Hot Dogs and Buns (-110)
I expect Esper to be sharp and bring his very best this year as he pursues the biggest eating achievement of his life. Looking at last year’s contest, Esper performed well in tough conditions. Any delays in time or environment have a major impact on the competitors. Despite the two-hour delay and rainy conditions last year, Esper managed an impressive 48 hot dogs and buns. Though the weather forecast this year is eerily similar to that of last year, assuming the thunderstorms can hold off, at least until the conclusion of the contest, I have Esper winning this year’s contest and doing so by eating 50 or more hot dogs and buns.
(Illustration: Dan Goldfarb / The Athletic; photo of Geoffrey Esper: Alexi J. Rosenfeld / Getty Images; photo of Miki Sudo: Eduardo Munoz Alvarez / Getty Images)